2015年4月28日星期二

Incomes to fall WHOEVER wins the general election, economic experts reveal

  • Institute of Fiscal Studies said incomes are set to fall over the next 5 years
  • It said Labour's manifesto suggested it would protect benefits but raise tax
  • The Tories, however, will cut taxes but slash benefits, the IFS said today 
  • Liberal Democrats will plot a middle course, but incomes will still fall  

Average incomes are set to fall over the next five years whoever wins the election, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said this morning.

After studying the parties' manifestos the economic think-tank said the Tories would reduce taxes –but also cut benefits. It said child benefit, tax credits and disability benefits were in danger.

Labour, however, would protect benefits but increase taxes to pay for it – hitting rich families in £3million homes with an annual £16,000 mansion tax bill.

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David Cameron outside the BBC today

Labour leader Ed Miliband in Stockton

Nick Clegg in London this morning

The Institute of Fiscal Studies this morning claimed it did not matter if David Cameron (pictured, left, today in central London), Ed Miliband (centre, giving a speech in Stockton yesterday) or Nick Clegg (right, at a press conference in London this morning)  was elected - average incomes will fall over the next five years

Incomes would also be hit by the Liberal Democrats – who would cut the benefits bill more than Labour but also increase taxes more than the Tories.

The IFS said: 'With significant deficit reduction still to come, households can expect the tax and benefit changes implemented over the next Parliament to reduce their incomes, on average.

'There are large differences between the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats in how they propose to do this.

'But they share a lack of willingness to be clear about the details and an inability to resist the urge for piecemeal changes which would make the overall system less efficient and coherent.'

Looking in detail at the party plans, the promise from both the Tories and Lib Dems to increase the personal allowance to £12,500 is of 'most value to those in the middle and upper-middle of the income distribution'.

The IFS said 44 per cent of adults already earned too little to pay income tax, while two-earner households would gain most of all.

Labour's proposed tax cut, via a new 10p starter rate, is criticised as lacking 'any economic justification' as it 'would be worth only 50p a week to most taxpayers'.

The think-tank reached this conclusion on the basis of the Labour pledge to fund the starter rate by scrapping the marriage tax allowance.

The Coalition parties were hit by official figures released this morning showing growth halving to 0.3 per cent

The Coalition parties were hit by official figures released this morning showing growth halving to 0.3 per cent

Osborne spoke recently of 'cutting income tax to reward work'

It said: 'Virtually identical effects could be achieved by simply raising the personal allowance.'

The IFS added: 'None of the parties is suggesting sorting out real problems in the income tax system.'

On benefits, the IFS said there was 'remarkable cross-party agreement' on protecting pensioner benefits.

It added: 'Despite being used as examples of 'tough choices', Labour proposals to remove winter fuel payments from higher-rate taxpaying pensioners and limit cash increases in child benefit to 1% this year and next would save next to nothing.'

The IFS said the Tories would have to cut child benefit, disability benefit, housing benefit or tax credits.

It said: 'More than two years after first announcing a desire to cut £12 billion from the social security budget in 2017/18, the Conservatives have provided details of just a tenth of this.

Institute of Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson has hit out at the main parties for not coming clean over their tax and spending plans

Institute of Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson has hit out at the main parties for not coming clean over their tax and spending plans

'It is hard to see how such savings could be achieved without sharp reductions in the generosity of, or eligibility to, one or more or child benefit, disability benefit, housing benefit and tax credits.'

Labour's announced plans on a mansion tax implied an average charge of more than £16,000 a year on homes worth more than £3 million.

It based this on the plan to charge £3,000 a year on homes in the £2-3 million bracket and goal to raise a total of £1.2 billion in revenue.

On the Tory inheritance tax plans, the IFS added: 'It is hard to see a good economic or social rationale for such a policy.'

Senior research economist James Browne said: 'We have seen little coherent reform to the tax system for many years and the parties' manifestos promise little going forward.

'Damage has been done, and more is being proposed, to pension taxation while proposals on the taxation of housing lack coherence.

'There is a limit to the extent that we can continue to pretend tax revenues can rise while protecting the vast majority of people.

'Just because a tax rise hits 'the rich' or is labelled 'anti avoidance' does not necessarily mean it is harmless.'

Robert Joyce, also a senior research economist, added: 'The Conservatives have continued to fail to explain how they would achieve the substantial cuts to social security they say they would deliver in the first half of the coming Parliament.

'These will be neither easy nor painless to deliver.

'Meanwhile Labour claims to be taking tough decisions by removing either fuel payments from a small fraction of pensioners and limiting child benefit increase to 1%.

'The former will save almost nothing - about one pound in a thousand spent on pensioner benefits.

'The latter is likely to save literally nothing.

'The manifestos have not helped us towards a sensible debate on the future generosity or structure of the benefits system.'



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